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  • Congratualtions 2008 Milwaukee Bucks

    Well, it took five long months, but the 2008 NBA Sim Tournament finally came to a close about two weeks ago. And the last men standing were the All-Time Milwaukee Bucks. And, just like last year, I was so exhausted after finally completing this goal I had to take some time off. But now all the results are up so enjoy!

    And, with the end of the 2008 tournament it’s inevitably time to start thinking about the beginning of the 2009 tournament. I’ve got a massive change to how I’m going to do things that will hopefully result in much fairer contests with more accurately simmed players. I also wish to have it actually end in the year 2009! We shall see.

    Thursday, June 4th, 2009 at 14:01
  • The Elite

    Basically, APP is a formula I use to bottle a player’s performance into one number without the bias of team pace. Using this formula, Chris Paul performed just slightly better than LeBron James did during the season so he would be my vote for MVP. One big criticism about this method of analysis is that it doesn’t factor wins into how well a player is perceived to have done for the year. But I have several arguments against that critique: Firstly, basketball is a team sport and everyone on the team – from the franchise player to the scrub at the end of the bench – is attributed each individual win or loss. Sure, some players are so good they are capabale of “taking over a game,” but that dominating performance would most definitely appear in his individual stats which is what APP is based in.

    My second argument is really a question. Does the team with the most wins at the end of the regular season have the MVP? What if it’s consisted of two Top 10 players? What if it just has above average players at each position? It’s hard to determine who gets what portion of the win pie depending on what type of team has been constructed (although it’s a fascinating subject I’d like to try to figure out someday ;) ). Even voters have proven that, while extremely relevant, wins aren’t the only deciding factor in who should be MVP. Since the beginning of MVP awards in 1956, the NBA has awarded the MVP to a player on the best (or tied for best) team, determined by win percentage, 63% of the time. An MVP has even been picked from as low as the ninth best team (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1976).

    So wins don’t seem super-important to me. I figure that players who perform extremeley well, enough to be considered elite level and thus, an MVP candidate, will naturally be playing on these high-win teams, anyway. Though not necessarily. Anyway, here are the Top 10 players based on APP from the 2009 NBA Season. Using this method, Mr. Chris Paul would be holding the trophy rather than ‘Bronny. But, ah well.

    Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by Difference in APP)
    # Player Team Pos. PPG RPG APG FG% 3P% FT% APP
    1 Chris Paul G 22.8 5.5 11.0 .503 .362 .868 36.74
    2 LeBron James F 28.4 7.6 7.2 .489 .344 .780 36.69
    3 Dwyane Wade G 30.2 5.0 7.5 .491 .317 .765 34.33
    4 Dwight Howard C-F 20.6 13.8 1.4 .572 .000 .594 29.59
    5 Tim Duncan F-C 19.3 10.7 3.5 .504 .000 .692 27.71
    6 Dirk Nowitzki F 25.9 8.4 2.4 .479 .359 .890 27.04
    7 Chris Bosh F-C 22.7 10.0 2.5 .487 .245 .817 26.81
    8 Al Jefferson F 23.1 11.0 1.6 .497 .000 .738 26.77
    9 Pau Gasol F 18.9 9.6 3.5 .567 .500 .781 26.49
    10 Brandon Roy G 22.6 4.7 5.1 .480 .377 .824 26.39

    One thing I’ve taken note of recently is positional averages. Basically, I desired finding the league average APP for guards, forwards and centers. Now, if a player was listed as playing multiple positions (care of Basketball Reference), his APP would be used for both positions. Then, I would find the difference between a player’s APP and his positional average APP. Once again, if a player was a multiple-position baller, I would rate him against the higher of the two positional averages. Essentially, I wanted to experiment to see if comparing players against just their positional counterparts would change anything from a blanket comparison against every NBA player. First, the positional APP averages and then the results:

    Positional APP Averages
    Guard Forward Center
    Sample Size Pos. APP Sample Size Pos. APP Sample Size Pos. APP
    188 9.93 221 10.31 86 9.91

    Random Table Style: 1979 Chicago Bulls

    Okay here are the results after ordering by difference in APP above positional APP:

    Top 10 MVP Candidates (Ordered by Difference above Positional APP)
    # Player Team Pos. PPG RPG APG FG% 3P% FT% APP Pos. APP Diff.
    1 Chris Paul G 22.8 5.5 11.0 .503 .362 .868 36.74 9.93 (G) 26.81
    2 LeBron James F 28.4 7.6 7.2 .489 .344 .780 36.69 10.31 (F) 26.38
    3 Dwyane Wade G 30.2 5.0 7.5 .491 .317 .765 34.33 9.93 (G) 24.40
    4 Dwight Howard C-F 20.6 13.8 1.4 .572 .000 .594 29.59 10.31 (F) 19.28
    5 Tim Duncan F-C 19.3 10.7 3.5 .504 .000 .692 27.71 10.31 (F) 17.40
    6 Dirk Nowitzki F 25.9 8.4 2.4 .479 .359 .890 27.04 10.31 (F) 16.73
    7 Chris Bosh F-C 22.7 10.0 2.5 .487 .245 .817 26.81 10.31 (F) 16.50
    8 Brandon Roy G 22.6 4.7 5.1 .480 .377 .824 26.39 9.93 (G) 16.46*
    9 Al Jefferson F 23.1 11.0 1.6 .497 .000 .738 26.77 10.31 (F) 16.46**
    9 Pau Gasol F 18.9 9.6 3.5 .567 .500 .781 26.49 10.31 (F) 16.18

    * Roy’s difference out to 4 digits is 16.4623
    ** Jefferson’s difference out to 4 digits is 16.4586

    While nothing super crazy happened with this experiment (the same 10 players appear in both methods) there were a few minor shake ups. Brandon Roy moved up from 10th spot to 8th, while Pau Gasol moved down to 10th. The All-NBA teams are a complete wash … regardles of which method you use all three teams come out with the same results. Here they are though, in case you don’t believe me:

    All-NBA First Team
    Ordered by APP Ordered by Difference above Positional APP
    Pos Player APP Pos Player Diff.
    G Chris Paul 36.74 G Chris Paul 26.81
    F LeBron James 36.69 F LeBron James 26.40
    G Dwyane Wade 34.33 G Dwyane Wade 24.40
    C Dwight Howard 29.59 C Dwight Howard 19.28
    F Tim Duncan 27.71 F Tim Duncan 17.40

    All-NBA Second Team
    Ordered by APP Ordered by Difference above Positional APP
    Pos Player APP Pos Player Diff.
    F Dirk Nowitzki 27.04 F Dirk Nowitzki 16.73
    F Chris Bosh 26.81 F Chris Bosh 16.50
    G Brandon Roy 26.39 G Brandon Roy 16.46
    G Kobe Bryant 25.92 G Kobe Bryant 15.99
    C Yao Ming 24.70 C Yao Ming 14.79

    All-NBA Third Team
    Ordered by APP Ordered by Difference above Positional APP
    Pos Player APP Pos Player Diff.
    F Al Jefferson 26.77 F Al Jefferson 16.46
    F Pau Gasol 26.49 F Pau Gasol 16.18
    G Deron Williams 25.79 G Deron Williams 15.86
    G Tony Parker 24.52 G Tony Parker 14.59
    C Amare Stoudemire 22.92 C Amare Stoudemire 12.61

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league for 2009 Season: 9.88
    Stats through 4/15/09

    Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 at 14:17
  • The Enhanced

    The annual Most Improved Player award is probably the regular season honor I have the most problems with. Not only is the conditions for candidacy vague like the other awards, but whole other realms of problematic circumstances come into play. Some candidates appear to be young starters who take the next step and become all stars. Others are comeback kids who were hobbled for a season – either by injury or slump – and have returned to form. Still other candidates are breakout players who were probably pretty good during the previous season, but now have more minutes or a bigger role on a (possibly different) team. By the end of all this, what exactly are we measuring when we say “most improved?” Improvement in performance? Resiliency? Exceeding expectations of greater responsibility? It’s mindboggling to this NBA fan who appreciates careful, balanced, measurable analysis. Meanwhile, the people who vote appreciate jumps in scoring, so Danny Granger took the trophy home.

    I tried to devise a system to see who actually had the biggest jump in APP from 2008 to 2009 (the approach that I took last year). So, here are the Top 10 largest (positive) changes in APP between the 2008 and 2009 NBA seasons:

    Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by Difference in APP)
    # Player Pos. 2008 Team 2008 APP 2009 Team 2009 APP Δ APP
    1 Nene Hilario F-C 7.13 19.57 12.44
    2 Chris Andersen F 1.95 12.37 10.42
    3 Dwyane Wade G 25.07 34.33 9.26
    4 Dominic McGuire F 2.75 11.02 8.28
    5 Spencer Hawes C 5.36 13.58 8.21
    6 Kevin Durant G-F 15.90 24.10 8.20
    7 Von Wafer G 0.52 8.14 7.62
    8 Paul Millsap F 11.20 18.68 7.48
    9 Jeff Green F 9.34 16.37 7.04
    10 C.J. Watson G 3.78 10.61 6.83

    Kind of a mish-mash of a list, really. Let’s look at a few examples to see why.

    Nene Hilario – Sure, Nene had his best season as a pro in 2009, but is comparing it to his 2008 season a fair assessment of improvement? He only played 16 total games in 2008 due to a testiculur cancer scare. While it is amazing that he was able to recover enough to bounce back into the league, it’s a pretty safe bet he’d be able to top what he did in just 16 games in a complete season.

    Chris Andersen – The Birdman is an even worse case. He only played about 7 minutes in 5 total games in 2008. This season he averaged over 20 minutes per game in 71 games. Balanced comparison?

    Paul Millsap – Millsap played great in both seasons, however he increased his minutes per game from a role player’s 20.7 (2008) to a sixth man’s 30.1 (2009). Is the increase in his APP more of a result of actual improvement or more minutes?

    To try and standardize this selection process I added a few rules. First, I added my 60% rule which basically says any season in which a player plays less than 60% of the regular season games (50 in an 82 game season) is inelligible. Second, I found the percentage change in minutes played from the two seasons. What I was hoping to do with this is to eliminate the benefit of APP due just to increased minutes. Essentially, here was my altered MIP formula:

    MIP Value = (Δ APP / (2008 MPG / 2009 MPG))
    MIP Value = (Δ APP / Δ MPG)

    Top 10 Most Improved Players (Ordered by Difference in APP / %Change In MPG)
    # Player Pos. 2008 Team 2008 APP 2008 MPG 2009 Team 2009 APP 2009 MPG Δ APP %Δ MPG Δ APP / %Δ MPG
    1 Dwyane Wade G 25.07 38.31 34.33 38.58 9.26 1.01 9.19
    2 Kevin Durant G-F 15.90 34.60 24.10 38.99 8.20 1.13 7.28
    Nene Hilario F-C 7.13 16.63 19.57 32.60 12.44 1.96 6.34
    3 Rajon Rondo G 16.12 29.95 22.23 33.03 6.11 1.10 5.54
    4 Devin Harris G 17.36 31.59 23.63 36.14 6.27 1.14 5.48
    5 Troy Murphy F 15.39 28.08 21.99 34.00 6.60 1.21 5.45
    6 Jeff Green F 9.34 28.16 16.37 36.79 7.04 1.31 5.38
    7 Paul Millsap F 11.20 20.76 18.68 30.13 7.48 1.45 5.15
    8 Andrea Bargnani F 8.29 23.86 14.43 31.45 6.15 1.32 4.66
    9 David Lee F 17.41 29.09 22.94 34.86 5.53 1.20 4.61
    Jameer Nelson G 15.00 28.42 19.64 31.17 4.64 1.10 4.23
    10 Danny Granger F 18.02 35.95 22.23 36.18 4.21 1.01 4.18

    Dwyane Wade played in 51 games last season but shut it down after still feeling a lot of pain from his pre-season surgeries. Upon returning from a successful Olympics campaign, he completely raised his game from 25.07 (2008 APP) to 34.33 (2009 APP) (a change of 9.26) playing essentially the same amount of minutes per game: 38.31 (2008 MPG), 38.58 (2009 MPG). I’d say his improvement was more noteworthy than, say, Danny Granger who also played similar minutes per game both season (35.95 in 2008, 36.18 in 2009) but whose change in APP wasn’t so great (18.02 in 2008, 22.23 in 2009 … a difference of only 4.21). Sorry D-Wade … and as a Mavs fan, this might be the only time I’ll ever utter those words.

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league for 2009 Season: 9.88
    APP for an average player in the league for 2008 Season: 9.61
    Stats through 4/15/09

    Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 at 13:41
  • The Eventual

    Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls took home the Rookie of the Year honros this year … and it seems pretty well deserved (and not just because he helped me a shitload on my fantasy basketball squad). He put up great numbers as the quarterback to a Bulls squad that eeked into the playoffs and matched up extremely well against Rajon Rando. Most impressively, he never seemed to hit the freshman wall and remained consistantly throughout the entire season.

    This year’s draft class wasn’t as hailed as the previous one’s (with Kevin Durant and Greg Oden going 1-2), but I forsee some great, solid contributors from the class of ‘09. Anyway, here are the top 10 rookies (Greg Oden was allowed to be named a rookie since he missed the entirety of last year’s season) based on APP.

    Top 10 Rookies (Ordered by APP)
    # Player Pos. Team PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT% APP
    1 Derrick Rose G 16.8 3.9 6.3 0.8 0.2 .475 .222 .788 19.14
    2 Brook Lopez C 13.0 8.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 .531 .000 .793 17.86
    3 Marc Gasol C 11.9 7.4 1.7 0.8 1.1 .530 .000 .733 16.63
    4 Russell Westbrook G 15.3 4.9 5.3 1.3 0.2 .399 .271 .815 15.87
    5 Kevin Love F 11.1 9.1 1.0 0.4 0.6 .459 .105 .789 15.83
    6 O.J. Mayo G 18.4 3.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 .438 .384 .879 15.64
    7 Eric Gordon G 16.1 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.4 .456 .389 .854 14.58
    8 Mario Chalmers G 10.0 2.8 4.9 2.0 0.1 .420 .367 .767 13.90
    8 Michael Beasley F 13.9 5.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 .472 .407 .772 13.43
    9 Jason Thompson F 11.1 7.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 .497 .000 .692 13.00
    10 Greg Oden C 8.9 7.0 0.5 0.4 1.1 .564 .637 12.90

    And, as always, I can’t stop just there. Here’s who I would’ve put on the All-Rookie teams based on my beloved APP.

    2009 All-Rookie First Team (Ordered by APP)
    Player Pos. Team PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT% APP
    G Derrick Rose G 16.8 3.9 6.3 0.8 0.2 .475 .222 .788 19.14
    C Brook Lopez C 13.0 8.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 .531 .000 .793 17.86
    G Russell Westbrook G 15.3 4.9 5.3 1.3 0.2 .399 .271 .815 15.87
    F Kevin Love F 11.1 9.1 1.0 0.4 0.6 .459 .105 .789 15.83
    F Michael Beasley F 13.9 5.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 .472 .407 .772 13.43

    2009 All-Rookie Second Team (Ordered by APP)
    Player Pos. Team PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT% APP
    C Marc Gasol C 11.9 7.4 1.7 0.8 1.1 .530 .000 .733 16.63
    G O.J. Mayo G 18.4 3.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 .438 .384 .879 15.64
    G Eric Gordon G 16.1 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.4 .456 .389 .854 14.58
    F Jason Thompson F 11.1 7.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 .497 .000 .692 13.00
    F D.J. White F 8.9 4.6 0.9 0.4 0.7 .520 .769 11.60
    F Luc Mbah a Moute F 7.2 5.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 .462 .000 .729 10.88

    NOTE: White didn’t play 50 games (my personal cut off) so he is ineligible for post-season awards.

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average rookie in the league: 6.78
    APP for an average player in the league: 9.88
    Stats through 4/15/09

    Wednesday, May 13th, 2009 at 12:05
  • The Energizers

    Every team has 12 players, so logic would dictate that each team has a sixth man. But do they? Is the sixth man on each team well-known and his place well-defined? And, with trades and injuries, are any of these roles and positions constant enough to track? It’s all very vague so to determine who was the best Sixth Man of the Year, I first decided to create rules to define who was qualified as a sixth man.

    For each team, regardless of in-season trades, I found the top 5 players according to games started. Separating them, I found the next player with the highest minutes played. This baller was selected as that team’s sixth man unless he started more than 50% of his total games played (the only hard rule regarding sixth man selection). If he did, indeed, start more than half of his games, I found the next player on the team with the highest minutes played.

    Last week, Jason Terry was selected the 2009 Sixth Man of the Year – an award he pretty much had locked up the entire year. And, according to APP, he’s an excellent selection. Though Antonio McDyess earned a slightly better APP, he was started 30 out of his 62 games. Here’s the entire list (including inelligible players due to games started):

    Team Sixth Men (Ordered by APP)
    # Player Pos. Team PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT% GS% APP
    1 Antonio McDyess F-C 9.6 9.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 .510 .698 .484 18.21
    2 Jason Terry G 19.6 2.4 3.4 1.3 0.3 .463 .366 .880 .149 18.01
    3 Lamar Odom F 11.3 8.2 2.6 1.0 1.3 .492 .320 .623 .410 17.33
    4 Nate Robinson G 17.2 3.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 .437 .326 .841 .149 16.54
    5 Kevin Love F 11.1 9.1 1.0 0.4 0.6 .459 .105 .789 .457 15.83
    Anderson Varejao F 8.6 7.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 .536 .000 .616 .519 14.40
    6 J.R. Smith G 15.2 3.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 .446 .397 .754 .222 14.18
    7 Leandro Barbosa G 14.2 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.1 .482 .375 .881 .157 13.51
    8 Michael Beasley F 13.9 5.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 .472 .407 .772 .235 13.43
    Francisco Garcia F-G 12.7 3.4 2.3 1.2 1.0 .444 .398 .820 .554 12.62
    9 Travis Outlaw F 12.8 4.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 .453 .377 .723 .074 12.61
    10 Hakim Warrick F 11.6 5.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 .491 .217 .711 .098 12.51
    Matt Barnes F 10.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 0.3 .423 .343 .743 .520 12.06
    11 D.J. Augustin G 11.8 1.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 .430 .439 .893 .167 12.03
    12 Kirk Hinrich G 9.9 2.4 3.9 1.3 0.4 .437 .408 .791 .078 11.73
    13 Kenyon Dooling G 9.7 2.0 3.5 0.9 0.1 .436 .421 .825 .234 11.38
    14 Jeff Foster F-C 6.1 6.9 1.8 0.7 0.7 .501 .286 .658 .351 11.37
    15 Louis Williams G 12.8 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.2 .398 .286 .790 .000 11.34
    16 C.J. Watson G 9.5 2.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 .457 .400 .870 .234 10.61
    17 James Posey F-G 8.9 4.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 .412 .369 .822 .000 10.60
    18 Ronald Murray G 12.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.2 .447 .360 .760 .025 10.49
    19 Fred Jones G-F 7.3 2.4 3.6 1.0 0.2 .407 .367 .815 .404 10.07
    20 Earl Watson G 6.6 2.7 5.8 0.7 0.2 .384 .235 .755 .265 10.02
    21 Aaron Brooks G 11.2 2.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 .404 .366 .866 .438 9.73
    22 Kyle Korver F 9.0 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.4 .438 .386 .882 .026 9.68
    23 Bobby Jackson G 7.5 2.8 2.0 0.9 0.1 .398 .305 .851 .141 8.38
    24 Nick Young G 10.9 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 .444 .341 .850 .061 8.17
    25 Charlie Bell G 8.4 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 .414 .363 .825 .329 7.75
    26 Glen Davis F 7.0 4.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 .442 .400 .730 .211 7.62
    27 Daniel Gibson G 7.8 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 .391 .382 .767 .000 7.34
    28 Anthony Johnson G 5.3 1.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 .404 .391 .753 .150 6.58
    29 Jason Kapono F 8.2 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 .432 .428 .810 .150 6.42
    30 Bruce Bowen F 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 .422 .429 .538 .125 3.68

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league: 9.88
    Stats through 4/15/09

    Saturday, May 2nd, 2009 at 01:09
  • The Enforcers

    Yesterday, Orlando Magic center, Dwight Howard, was named the 2009 Defensive Player of the Year. Aside from being only the fifth NBA player to lead the league in both rebounds and blocks, Howard is also the youngest ever to win the Defensive Player award. Now, while these are impressive – hell – legendary stats, they apparently aren’t the sole criteria to determine voting. For example, Hakeem Olajuwon led the league in both blocks and rebounds in 1990, and David Robinson achieved this same feat in 1991. However, it was Dennis “The Worm” Rodman who picked up DPOY honors for both of those years.

    What the fuck, right? Well, without harping on it too much (because everyone else has already touched it a million times), there are no set rules to determine any of the regular season awards (with one or two small exceptions). Make them up if you like! While this can (and does) produce annoyingly inconsistent results, it does nicely open the door for criticism.

    And with that inch, as usual, I’ll go a mile. First, let’s take a look at the top 10 players based on APD (Adjusted-Pace Defense) this year. This is essentially the method I used last year (just with a formula name change) to determine who I crowned the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year.

    Top 10 Players (Ordered by APD)
    # Player Pos. Team DRB BLK STL PF Pace APD
    1 Dwight Howard C-F 9.6 2.9 1.0 3.4 92.3 13.02
    2 Marcus Camby F-C 8.5 2.1 0.8 2.1 92.1 11.56
    3 Tim Duncan F-C 8.0 1.7 0.5 2.3 88.4 10.35
    4 Troy Murphy F 9.8 0.5 0.8 3.1 96.5 10.06
    5 LeBron James F 6.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 88.7 9.77
    6 Al Jefferson F 7.5 1.7 0.8 2.8 91.6 9.55
    7 Kevin Garnett F 7.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 90.4 9.50
    8 Al Horford C 7.1 1.4 0.8 2.8 89.6 9.08
    9 Yao Ming C 7.2 1.9 0.4 3.3 90.3 8.86
    10 Gerald Wallace F 6.2 0.9 1.7 3.0 88.3 8.84

    APD – Adjusted Pace Defense
    A (work-in-progress) weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the defensive side of a basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    Stats through 4/15/09

    Now, I understand that bigger players (especially centers) are the anchors of team defense and will produce most of the defensive stats. That’s why no one smaller than a small forward appears on this list. However, I’ve never been a fan of that idea as each position has different defensive criteria. Should a great defensive guard be overlooked by a good defensive center simply because the latter plays the more “important” defensive position?

    Like I said, I haven’t made up my mind. But, I’ll check out what happens to the Top 10 when I look at difference in APD compared to positional average. First, I determined the league averages for each postion (guard, forward, center). If a player played 2 positions, his APD was averaged into both positions. Second, I found the difference between a player’s individual APD and his position average APD. If he played two positions, I would compare him against the taller of the two positions. Here are the results:

    Top 10 Players (Ordered by APD)
    # Player Pos. Team DRB BLK STL PF Pace APD Avg APD Diff.
    1 Dwight Howard C-F 9.6 2.9 1.0 3.4 92.3 13.02 4.04 (C) 8.98
    2 Marcus Camby F-C 8.5 2.1 0.8 2.1 92.1 11.56 4.04 (C) 7.53
    3 Troy Murphy F 9.8 0.5 0.8 3.1 96.5 10.06 3.69 (F) 6.36
    4 Tim Duncan F-C 8.0 1.7 0.5 2.3 88.4 10.35 4.04 (C) 6.31
    5 LeBron James F 6.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 88.7 9.77 3.69 (F) 6.07
    6 Al Jefferson F 7.5 1.7 0.8 2.8 91.6 9.55 3.69 (F) 5.85
    7 Kevin Garnett F 7.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 90.4 9.50 3.69 (F) 5.81
    8 Chris Paul G 5.5 0.1 2.8 2.7 87.8 7.84 2.47 (G) 5.37
    9 Jason Kidd G 4.7 0.5 2.0 2.1 91.5 7.69 2.47 (G) 5.22
    10 Dwyane Wade G 3.9 1.3 2.2 2.3 89.9 7.64 2.47 (G) 5.17

    So, by my admittedly weak formula, I would have to vote (if I had a vote to give) for Dwight Howard, as well. So, essentially, Dwight Howards winning the Defensive Player of the Year award is Project NBA Sim approved!

    They haven’t been released yet, but here are my votes for the All-Defensive First Team players:

    2009 All-Defensive First Team
    Pos Player Pos. Team DRB BLK STL PF Pace APD Avg APD Diff.
    C Dwight Howard C-F 9.6 2.9 1.0 3.4 92.3 13.02 4.04 (C) 8.98
    F Marcus Camby F-C 8.5 2.1 0.8 2.1 92.1 11.56 4.04 (C) 7.53
    F Troy Murphy F 9.8 0.5 0.8 3.1 96.5 10.06 3.69 (F) 6.36
    G Chris Paul G 5.5 0.1 2.8 2.7 87.8 7.84 2.47 (G) 5.37
    G Jason Kidd G 4.7 0.5 2.0 2.1 91.5 7.69 2.47 (G) 5.22

    And here’s who I would have to round out the All-Defensive Second Team:

    2009 All-Defensive Second Team
    Pos Player Pos. Team DRB BLK STL PF Pace APD Avg APD Diff.
    C Tim Duncan F-C 8.0 1.7 0.5 2.3 88.4 10.35 4.04 (C) 6.31
    F LeBron James F 6.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 88.7 9.77 3.69 (F) 6.07
    F Al Jefferson F 7.5 1.7 0.8 2.8 91.6 9.55 3.69 (F) 5.85
    G Dwyane Wade G 3.9 1.3 2.2 2.3 89.9 7.64 2.47 (G) 5.17
    G Kevin Durant G-F 5.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 93.6 7.38 3.69 (F) 3.68
    Friday, May 1st, 2009 at 13:57
  • 2009 NBA Top 10: Week 24 !!

    I realize that the 2009 NBA Playoffs have already begun but I had some major issues with my networking provider. I already threw up a half-hearted week 23 post, here’s it’s accompanying week 24 (+ last few days) post.

    In an amazing turn of events Chris Paul came back in this final week and a half to recalim the top dog status! It was quite a battle between Paul and LeBron James for supremecy the entire season. Paul started out at the #1 slot and kept it for 2 weeks before finally falling to LeBron. James, though, was only able to keep hold of the coveted position for that one week as Paul went on a 10-week-long run at the top. LeBron took another look at the number in his “Chosen 1″ tattoo (though that must’ve been hard since it’s on his back) and wrested control of #1 from Paul and seemed to have a strangle hold on it. 9 straight weeks, LBJ sat atop his throne, laughing at all his potential “rivals.” But, just as he leads the league in steals at 2.8 per game, never count out master theif Paul! How does this reflect my MVP vote? We shall just have to see as the next couple of blogs will contain my analysis for the end of the year awards.

    … oh yeah, back to that Top 10 I was supposed to post.

    Biggest Jump: Dirk Nowitzki (4)
    Biggest Fall: Brandon Roy (3)
    Hello: None!
    Goodbye: None!

    Rank Prev Player GP APP

    1

    2 Chris Paul 78 ↑ 36.74

    2

    1 LeBron James 81 ↓ 36.69

    3

    3 Dwyane Wade 79 ↑ 34.33
    4 4 Dwight Howard 79 ↓ 29.59
    5 5 Tim Duncan 75 ↓ 27.71
    6 10 Dirk Nowitzki 81 ↑ 27.07
    7 9 Chris Bosh 77 ↑ 26.81
    8 6 Al Jefferson 50 26.77
    9 10 Pau Gasol 81 ↑ 26.49
    10 7 Brandon Roy 78 ↓ 26.39

     

    Just Outside

    • Kobe Bryant (25.92)
    • Deron Williams (25.79)
    • Yao Ming (24.70)
    • Tony Parker (24.52)
    • Kevin Durant (24.10)

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league: 9.88
    Stats through 4/15/09

    Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 14:55
  • 2009 NBA Top 10: Week 23

    I’ve been having some issues with my host. The site seems to come down randomly and their responses is always like “ok, refresh now” and it works, rather than telling me what the hell the problem was in the first place. In the interest of time (since I’ve got the final week of stats to boil through as well …) I’ll just do a quick post here.

    Biggest Jump: Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh (2)
    Biggest Fall: Kobe Bryant (3)
    Hello: None!
    Goodbye: None!

    Rank Prev Player GP APP

    1

    1 LeBron James 78 ↓ 36.74

    2

    2 Chris Paul 74 ↑ 36.25

    3

    3 Dwyane Wade 77 ↓ 33.93
    4 4 Dwight Howard 76 30.06
    5 5 Tim Duncan 72 ↓ 27.81
    6 6 Al Jefferson (Out For Season) 50 ↑ 26.77
    7 7 Brandon Roy 74 ↑ 26.74
    8 9 Chris Bosh 73 ↑ 26.68
    9 10 Dirk Nowitzki 77 ↑ 26.60
    10 8 Pau Gasol 77 ↓ 26.47

     

    Just Outside

    • Kobe Bryant (26.03)
    • Deron Williams (25.58)
    • Yao Ming (24.67)
    • Kevin Durant (24.50)
    • Tony Parker (24.23)

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league: 9.83
    Stats through 4/9/09

    Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 13:41
  • 2009 NBA Top 10: Week 22

    Wait a second … no one noticed that I had Brandon Roy listed twice in last week’s Top 10 post?!?! Where are my adoring fans? In other news, I really wish to write a great non-Top 10 post about a really awesome tool I’m building based on my NBA historical database. But … well, work has been crazy and I haven’t had enough time to finish the damn thing. When it’s completed, however, fear your face as it will be rocked!

    Biggest Jump: Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh (2)
    Biggest Fall: Kobe Bryant (3)
    Hello: None!
    Goodbye: None!

    Rank Prev Player GP APP

    1

    1 LeBron James 73 ↑ 36.81

    2

    2 Chris Paul 68 ↓ 36.03

    3

    3 Dwyane Wade 72 ↓ 34.03
    4 4 Dwight Howard 70 ↑ 30.06
    5 5 Tim Duncan 67 ↑ 28.12
    6 7 Al Jefferson (Out For Season) 50 ↑ 26.74
    7 6 Brandon Roy 69 ↓ 26.72
    8 10 Brandon Roy 72 ↑ 26.59
    9 11 Chris BoshChris Bosh
    The Raptors will not be seeing the playoffs and apparently this has pissed Mr. Bosh off. Last week he strung together a superior line (21.5 PPG / 14.0 RPG / 3.5 APG) in 4-straight wins.
    68 ↑ 26.55
    10 9 Dirk Nowitzki 72 ↓ 26.25

     

    Just Outside

    • Kobe Bryant (26.23)
    • Deron Williams (25.23)
    • Devin Harris (24.79)
    • Kevin Durant (24.49)
    • Yao Ming (24.39)

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league: 9.82
    Stats through 3/29/09

    Wednesday, April 1st, 2009 at 13:19
  • 2009 NBA Top 10: Week 21

    Biggest Jump: Brandon Roy (2)
    Biggest Fall: Kobe Bryant (2)
    Hello: Yao Ming
    Goodbye: Antawn Jamison

    Rank Prev Player GP APP

    1

    1 LeBron James 70 ↑ 36.64

    2

    2 Chris Paul 65 ↑ 36.17

    3

    3 Dwyane Wade 68 ↑ 34.46
    4 4 Dwight Howard 67 ↓ 29.83
    5 5 Tim Duncan 64 ↓ 27.99
    6 8 Brandon RoyBrandon Roy
    Roy continues to lead his young Blazers strongly towards the postseason. Last week the went 23.5 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 7.3 APG and won 3 out of 4 games.
    66 ↑ 26.76
    7 7 Al Jefferson (Out For Season) 50 ↑ 26.65
    8 6 Kobe Bryant 69 ↓ 26.40
    9 9 Dirk Nowitzki 69 ↓ 26.31
    10 10 Pau Gasol 65 ↑ 26.31

     

    Just Outside

    • Chris Bosh (26.03)
    • Deron Williams (25.02)
    • Devin Harris (24.89)
    • Kevin Durant (24.82)
    • Yao Ming (24.33)

    APP – Adjusted Pace Performance
    A weighted formula for combining everything a player does on the basketball court into one number. This number is then adjusted based upon the players’ team pace to provide a balanced way to compare players’ performances.

    APP for an average player in the league: 9.78
    Stats through 3/22/09

    Monday, March 23rd, 2009 at 12:37
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